Bitcoin’s $70K Bounce: A Trap or the Start of the Comeback?

When Bitcoin hit $122,000 in October, we issued a definitive signal to our members: sell your Bitcoin and exit all Altcoins. We were particularly firm on taking profits on Solana (SOL), which had been one of our strongest recommendations earlier in 2025.

The thesis we shared back in September was simple, but highly effective. Historically, the end of September into the beginning of October has marked the conclusion of the Bitcoin 4-year cycle—a pattern that has reliably played out for the last 12 years. We chose to respect the cycle, got out in time, and it turned out to be exactly the right call.

Fast forward to today. Bitcoin has crashed down to $60,000 and recently rebounded to the $70,000 mark. Naturally, the number one question we are receiving from our members right now is: Is it time to get back into Bitcoin?

The simple answer is No. Here is our thesis on why we are staying patient.

The Technical Picture: The Trend is Your Friend

Currently, Bitcoin is trading below the 200 Daily Moving Average (DMA). In technical analysis, the 200 DMA is one of the strongest indicators of market health. The rule of thumb is straightforward: if you are trading below it, you are in a bear trend; if the price is above it, you are in a bull trend.

Technically speaking, we are firmly in a bear trend, and there are absolutely no signs of an imminent breakout to the upside. Remember, the trend is your friend—and right now, the trend is pointing down.

Timing is Everything: The Midterm Year Curse

Technicals aren't everything. In financial markets, timing is just as critical.

If we look back over the past 12 years, Bitcoin has never experienced a bull trend during the summer of a midterm election year. Never. As the old market adage goes: History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. For Bitcoin, it has been rhyming with incredible accuracy for over a decade.

What About Altcoins?

For those wondering if there is an isolated opportunity in the Altcoin market, the reality is that Altcoins follow Bitcoin's lead. We will not be issuing any buy alerts for Altcoins as long as the broader market remains in a bear trend. Without Bitcoin's strength, the foundation for an Altcoin rally simply isn't there.

When Is It Time to Get Back In?

As mentioned, the summer months of a midterm year have historically been exceptionally poor for crypto assets. Because of this, we are going to let this summer pass and see what kind of price action we get in Q3.

Our ideal scenario? We see new market lows in Q3, perfectly aligning with a stock market that is poised for a rebound in Q4. If those two events synchronize, it might just open the perfect window for a major crypto trade.

Secure Your Next Trade

Rest assured, our team is working 7 days a week monitoring these charts. The moment we see a prime opportunity to re-enter the market, we will send out a live trade alert.

If you are new to investing, or if you are simply tired of staring at charts all day trying to guess the market's next move, become a member today. You will receive all of our trade alerts, detailed market updates, and exclusive cyber security briefings to keep your digital assets safe.

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